Great writing! We will likely see Cruise and other AV ridehailing become more prevelant. However, I see a few issues:
1. Many rural and suburban Americans use their vehicles far too heavily for Cruise et al to make economic sense - especially after factoring convenience costs. After all, you can just drive your car instead of waiting for a service.
2. Political valence: This is more America centric but lately every technology (except perhaps AI) gets a political valence which makes roughly half the people opposed to it. Given that cars are such a big part of identity for so many, I would think this would probably happen for AVs too.
3. Cannot replace mass transit: Car ownership in cities can already be displaced by reliable, efficient mass transit like heavy rail. NYC, Europe, and Tokyo have achieved this. This is not to say AVs cannot do the same but mass transit will be a far more sustainable vision of the future and I think we should not lose sight of that.
I believe your point that AVs are magical and loved the analysis but am deeply curious about the potential to revolutionize freight. The use case seems less vulnerable to political polarization and the space is dominated by bigger actors, making the transition potentially easier.
Great writing! We will likely see Cruise and other AV ridehailing become more prevelant. However, I see a few issues:
1. Many rural and suburban Americans use their vehicles far too heavily for Cruise et al to make economic sense - especially after factoring convenience costs. After all, you can just drive your car instead of waiting for a service.
2. Political valence: This is more America centric but lately every technology (except perhaps AI) gets a political valence which makes roughly half the people opposed to it. Given that cars are such a big part of identity for so many, I would think this would probably happen for AVs too.
3. Cannot replace mass transit: Car ownership in cities can already be displaced by reliable, efficient mass transit like heavy rail. NYC, Europe, and Tokyo have achieved this. This is not to say AVs cannot do the same but mass transit will be a far more sustainable vision of the future and I think we should not lose sight of that.
I believe your point that AVs are magical and loved the analysis but am deeply curious about the potential to revolutionize freight. The use case seems less vulnerable to political polarization and the space is dominated by bigger actors, making the transition potentially easier.